MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddc7b8d46ad320704f5a27b81c5608ad4743b4172121775cea65ab303b8214c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa75e…96ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 2,287$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 2,000$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.1 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 711.78$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.34 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 674.37$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.26 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…c3fbbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 503.1$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 417.3$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.96 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed St. Louis Cardinals | 11c | 393.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 375$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 331.8$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.36 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 288.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.15 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e0…8b20backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 138.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 118$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…b61bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 62.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.