Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdde7d75e21b43a5758fca4c3a15855b3cebe38216d0b90eb75ca09ef6d52a14d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,988 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,047$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.76 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 439.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 10c | 311.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 291.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 15c | 242.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 240.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 224.53$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 12c | 209.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 179.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 161.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 21c | 153.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 143.82$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 136$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 23c | 128.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 16c | 97.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 24c | 81.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 76c | 73.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 33c | 73.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 22c | 63.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…7e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 21c | 53.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 77c | 47.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…8311backed Yes | 23c | 44.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 75c | 41.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663c…0401backed No | 79c | 36.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 78c | 36.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 28.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 75c | 17.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…fa96backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 13.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 78c | 12.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 43°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 62°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 44-45°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 46-47°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 48-49°F on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.