Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ceeb18eae0a7b6b1917a229db5daf593e9b8503c4b9f1b6b5644e001410f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed No | 75c | 483.1$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 6c | 444.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 325.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 285$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 274.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 8c | 264$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 224.75$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 169.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 135.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 133.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 22c | 128.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 120.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 31c | 118.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 118.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 31c | 114.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 112.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 31c | 107.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 11c | 105.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 104.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 14c | 102.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 89.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 29c | 87.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 26c | 77.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 67.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 66.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 63.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 63.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 32c | 61.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 23c | 49.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 44.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 73c | 41.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd943…915dbacked Yes | 28c | 35.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 74c | 34.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 32c | 33.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 79c | 31.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 70c | 30.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x663c…0401backed No | 73c | 30.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 26.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 77c | 25.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 74c | 22.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 71c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 77c | 20.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 76c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca23…6080backed No | 77c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 79c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 70c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…fa96backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 72c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 74c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 78c | 13.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 43°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 62°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 44-45°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 46-47°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 48-49°F on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.