Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdded17afb14b79471974c857dc01fdc180b798f380f01214fef68b9bd589991a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9065…b9a3backed No | 0c | 68,602$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 12,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 7,691$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 71c | 832.89$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.58 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…3430backed No | 13c | 736.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 603.23$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 44c | 404.98$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.07 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 379.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.6 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 7c | 377.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 7c | 272.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 54c | 248.54$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 182.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed Yes | 79c | 179.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 167.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 166.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…88a2backed Yes | 26c | 161.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 24c | 154.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 24c | 154$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 15c | 146.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 145.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 9c | 123.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 25c | 121.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 78c | 120.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 106.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 11c | 95.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 21c | 84.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 81.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 21c | 77.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 40c | 70.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 30c | 61.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 57.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…05c8backed Yes | 25c | 55.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 27c | 51.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 48c | 48.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 80c | 46.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 46.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 44c | 42.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 45c | 42.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 27c | 41.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 31c | 39.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 73c | 38.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 38.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 56c | 36.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…3afebacked No | 67c | 29.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 72c | 26.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 77c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 73c | 21.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 49c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 76c | 19.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 76c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 14.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed No | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 71c | 14.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 75c | 13.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.