NHL · resolved market
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. Ontario Reign
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddee62b6d5597ae00abf5d8194abfaa1ed09472bf97d435a9afb4f874e145290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ontario Reignof Bakersfield Condors, Ontario Reign
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c5b…1ab3backed Bakersfield Condors | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…fe32backed Ontario Reign | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…8738backed Bakersfield Condors | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…04c0backed Ontario Reign | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…af81backed Ontario Reign | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…83edbacked Bakersfield Condors | 40c | 550$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Ontario Reign | 57c | 109.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Bakersfield Condors | 51c | 105.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Bakersfield Condors | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Ontario Reign | 49c | 64.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Bakersfield Condors | 31c | 39.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Ontario Reign | 69c | 36.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Ontario Reign | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 24.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Ontario Reign | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Ontario Reign | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.