Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0f36c0aea2ef7735589175b5d29f3a1cdd5fbfff42938a8e4f9bbcc7918261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 7,871$5,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.4 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 1,610$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.74 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 24c | 1,493$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.13 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 18c | 1,400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 79c | 1,117$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.84 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Yes | 31c | 806.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…6268backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 19c | 732$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 706.69$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 660.69$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 621.72$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…8c42backed Yes | 15c | 533.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 20c | 425.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…9104backed Yes | 25c | 319.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 80c | 264.05$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed No | 71c | 251$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Yes | 20c | 223$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 31c | 163.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…1363backed Yes | 26c | 112.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb8…46d2backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 18c | 95.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Yes | 14c | 91.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…830dbacked Yes | 25c | 81.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…5d9abacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 25c | 72.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -13.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 18c | 71.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +83%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed90…d1ffbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 25c | 52.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 27c | 46.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 74c | 36.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5810…4d4abacked No | 77c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…83d5backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 77cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.