Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde253949aa131909caeaa50a51c591e61b074be9a43617635aaf259c1a9e6bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 14,534$11,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 8,556$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.88 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a29backed Over | 24c | 4,999$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.7 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 19c | 2,625$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.75 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 56c | 916.21$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.94 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 879.87$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.6 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 20c | 805.01$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 58c | 399.94$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.97 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 29c | 336.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 327.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.28 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 12c | 299.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 34c | 292.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 14c | 286.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 55c | 250.74$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.91 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 56c | 227.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 27c | 175.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…0912backed Under | 45c | 166.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 44c | 137$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 44c | 136.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 45c | 128.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 20c | 99.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 55c | 72.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 55c | 65.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 32c | 65.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 57c | 58.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 62c | 52.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…1d88backed Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 40.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…f7bfbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 32.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa507…4e3abacked Over | 37c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Under | 67c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.