NFL · resolved market
Spread: IND (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde386d73b192558a80e8dd7e033ec7915b38dcd4eae23a26523dfaf531bdc387
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- INDof IND, TEN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked IND | 57c | 30,302$17,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,936 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed TEN | 43c | 30,023$12,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,916.92 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked IND | 56c | 3,639$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.6 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed TEN | 42c | 2,352$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.46 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed TEN | 43c | 1,796$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.28 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked IND | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked TEN | 43c | 308.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed IND | 57c | 305$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed TEN | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed TEN | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…35a9backed IND | 56c | 175$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked IND | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed TEN | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed TEN | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…ab08backed IND | 54c | 88.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0488…aea5backed IND | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked IND | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked IND | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: IND (-3.5)this page
- Colts vs. TitansColts won
- IND vs. TEN: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: IND (-4.5)IND won
- Spread: IND (-6.5)IND won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.