NFL · resolved market
Spread: IND (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc438e7af5bbc75c9514f2b4e4f5cc4898658753f36c01b86531da92ba35646d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- INDof IND, TEN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked TEN | 46c | 8,448$3,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,868.15 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked IND | 52c | 8,409$4,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,065.65 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed IND | 54c | 6,667$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,066.67 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed TEN | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked TEN | 48c | 2,974$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.52 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed TEN | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked IND | 50c | 2,300$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed TEN | 49c | 1,621$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.23 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked IND | 51c | 1,531$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.04 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked IND | 55c | 1,372$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.53 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed TEN | 47c | 1,283$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.24 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed TEN | 49c | 997.73$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.03 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed IND | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked IND | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed IND | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…9434backed IND | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked TEN | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed IND | 55c | 145.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed TEN | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed TEN | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed TEN | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked IND | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed IND | 52c | 81.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked IND | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed IND | 53c | 47.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…bc74backed IND | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked IND | 53c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked TEN | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed IND | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: IND (-4.5)this page
- Colts vs. TitansColts won
- IND vs. TEN: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: IND (-3.5)IND won
- Spread: IND (-6.5)IND won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.