NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde41ed3ae9b6f8d6ab7ba67f4df205052cbc690561a0d0bf0c38d362f4fd8805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Pelicans | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 483 | 43.7%211 W · 272 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…db28backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 11,314$5,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,619.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.99 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 4,800$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 4,400$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 715$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.5 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pelicans | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…e648backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Pelicans | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 359.28$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 52c | 263.14$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Pelicans | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 121.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…629fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…41b5backed Pelicans | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Pelicans | 52c | 38.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Pelicans | 51c | 36.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 36.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Pelicans | 48c | 35.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 35.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. PelicansTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 243.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 244.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 245.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.