World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde6c5f4406054f1c170d38d9f55a651cd8b93c26039e0d20aa02bb19da15ce0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 228.12$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 73c | 211.6$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 27c | 113.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 107.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 106.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 102.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 98.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 76.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf1…dc31backed Yes | 27c | 73.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +267%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 73.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 62.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 60.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 46.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 46.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 44.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +374.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…2d2abacked Yes | 67c | 38.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…6a1dbacked Yes | 50c | 29.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 28.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 25.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 21.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked No | 77c | 18.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.