Serie A · resolved market
Will US Cremonese vs. Udinese end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde9101b551549f9a050a45ac4d6282b6b6d2a0f908efd2d2a81b888b186f5079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 2,798$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.29 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 68c | 2,588$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.19 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 53c | 2,231$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.05 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,569$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Yes | 31c | 1,300$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 69c | 1,077$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.52 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 762.41$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.73 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 41c | 614.14$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.91 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…2997backed No | 70c | 569.16$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 31c | 516.13$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.13 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 454.63$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.89 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 31c | 422$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 62c | 324.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 31c | 315.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…21e4backed Yes | 31c | 251.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 74c | 244.56$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 45c | 231.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 68c | 222.17$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.07 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 32c | 203.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 31c | 197.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02a…1f73backed Yes | 25c | 160.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…dc27backed Yes | 32c | 160.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 46cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 15c | 151.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158b…fb9abacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…22d2backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Yes | 71c | 77.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…f6adbacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…d7f0backed Yes | 75c | 63.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…7637backed Yes | 32c | 31.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +215.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…2086backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…3f54backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…6dd1backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d96…fbe2backed No | 70c | 26.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Cremonese vs. Udinese end in a draw?this page
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20?No won
- Will Udinese win on 2025-10-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.