Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mattia Bellucci
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde9945a51ecbfa206ec9ba6044a84319744fbaf58309816f964c2028654c6059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bustaof Busta, Bellucci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Bellucci | 42c | 4,357$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.25 | 186 | 63.4%118 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Bellucci | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.17 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bellucci | 0c | 2,918$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Busta | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Busta | 52c | 1,684$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.96 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Busta | 51c | 1,317$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.12 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bellucci | 35c | 1,280$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.4 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bellucci | 27c | 1,122$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.02 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bellucci | 57c | 1,094$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.73 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Busta | 59c | 1,055$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.23 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Bellucci | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Busta | 75c | 977.97$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.43 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Busta | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Busta | 73c | 645.11$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.48 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…9f6fbacked Busta | 80c | 376$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bellucci | 5c | 299.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bellucci | 24c | 281.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Busta | 52c | 273.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.03 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bellucci | 24c | 270.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…ccedbacked Bellucci | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Busta | 34c | 209.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Busta | 51c | 205.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Busta | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Bellucci | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Busta | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…8c1ebacked Bellucci | 70c | 187.54$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 184 | 60.3%111 W · 73 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…0505backed Busta | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Bellucci | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…44adbacked Busta | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Busta | 51c | 130.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x545e…0185backed Bellucci | 45c | 109.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Busta | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Bellucci | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Bellucci | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Busta | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Busta | 65c | 85.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed Busta | 59c | 76.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Busta | 55c | 72.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Busta | 51c | 69.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Bellucci | 49c | 66.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…8323backed Busta | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bellucci | 41c | 64.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67df…9d4dbacked Busta | 79c | 62.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Bellucci | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…cf9ebacked Busta | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Busta | 35c | 47.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Busta | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Busta | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Bellucci | 47c | 32.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Busta | 44c | 32.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Bellucci | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Busta | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bellucci | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac0…63c8backed Busta | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Busta | 52c | 27.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Busta | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Busta | 69c | 26.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Bellucci | 44c | 25.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…fc15backed Busta | 56c | 25.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…01fcbacked Busta | 53c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 131 | 58%76 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Bellucci | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mattia Belluccithis page
- Busta vs. Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Busta vs BellucciBusta won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.