Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Iraq by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdea060377c38096511da830db529ad817b29456215ac6da550b7c9c151811149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 8c | 21,438$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.03 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes | 5c | 3,071$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.49 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,753$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…ac9bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,675$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,383$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.3 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,072$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 6c | 2,059$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 5c | 1,951$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 9c | 1,603$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 5c | 1,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0153…b512backed Yes | 3c | 1,429$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 1,210$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…bb25backed Yes | 8c | 1,104$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…0101backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x181a…fff6backed Yes | 8c | 620.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 8c | 561.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 6c | 535.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…9eb8backed Yes | 8c | 459.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 7c | 366.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…4b4bbacked Yes | 9c | 284.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…50e9backed Yes | 6c | 234$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 10c | 156.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3634…310dbacked Yes | 9c | 136.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa12…e948backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 76c | 52.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 76c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.