Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" during the medal presentation on December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec965f6a5f622a1e524be31f67573653e329ff6d01f49abb2f788a604caede4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 70c | 250$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 61c | 165$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +160.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 57c | 160$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…86f0backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…5845backed Yes | 29c | 68.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3355…119dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8c…768bbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e29…530ebacked No | 66c | 25.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" during the medal presentation on December 15?this page
- Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the medal presentation on December 15?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the medal presentation on December 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during the medal presentation on December 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during the medal presentation on December 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Mental Institution" during the medal presentation on December 15?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mexico" or "Mexican" 5+ times during the medal presentation on December 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ during the medal presentation on December 15?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during the medal presentation on December 15?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Texas" during the medal presentation on December 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" or "Please" 13+ times during the medal presentation on December 15?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" during the medal presentation on December 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.