Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UC Davis Aggies vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xded0c8bb25746064e8ccf60f8ecbeb5eacacdc80e4edb63bcb255cb9d7ade251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsof UC Davis Aggies, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed UC Davis Aggies | 19c | 3,135$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.52 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 80c | 1,505$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.08 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…0d11backed UC Davis Aggies | 20c | 1,480$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed UC Davis Aggies | 3c | 866.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked UC Davis Aggies | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed UC Davis Aggies | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked UC Davis Aggies | 20c | 595.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499d…65ecbacked UC Davis Aggies | 7c | 565.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 79c | 423.96$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed UC Davis Aggies | 22c | 334.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked UC Davis Aggies | 8c | 290$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked UC Davis Aggies | 9c | 233.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed UC Davis Aggies | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…c4e7backed UC Davis Aggies | 15c | 191.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ed…3ae6backed UC Davis Aggies | 21c | 187.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed UC Davis Aggies | 9c | 185.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed UC Davis Aggies | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…4d44backed UC Davis Aggies | 18c | 135.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed UC Davis Aggies | 13c | 100.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed UC Davis Aggies | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed UC Davis Aggies | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed UC Davis Aggies | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked UC Davis Aggies | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed UC Davis Aggies | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed UC Davis Aggies | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked UC Davis Aggies | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 77c | 58.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…9779backed UC Davis Aggies | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed UC Davis Aggies | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…10fdbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.