MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee00645b5933e4f49a9dec86ceb720eaaea58106eb35f64fc1b17aaf5aa6f90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nationalsof Nationals, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Nationals | 45c | 16,492$7,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,083.73 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Reds | 55c | 15,351$8,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,444.77 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Reds | 56c | 6,700$3,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,726 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Nationals | 50c | 6,032$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.51 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd8…4fabbacked Reds | 57c | 2,288$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Reds | 62c | 2,264$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Nationals | 50c | 2,064$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals | 42c | 1,617$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.07 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Reds | 63c | 1,613$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.07 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Nationals | 38c | 1,364$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.42 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nationals | 43c | 1,087$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Nationals | 44c | 1,007$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.7 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Reds | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Reds | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Reds | 63c | 1,000$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Nationals | 44c | 983.14$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.56 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals | 48c | 885.29$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.35 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba39…f0dfbacked Reds | 46c | 876.59$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Nationals | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds | 52c | 686.55$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.22 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Reds | 52c | 615.38$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nationals | 52c | 428$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Reds | 66c | 404$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.14 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Reds | 51c | 328.8$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.69 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 49c | 328.8$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.69 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Reds | 63c | 306.02$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.32 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Reds | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Nationals | 48c | 288$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Nationals | 74c | 271.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Nationals | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals | 49c | 205.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Reds | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6d…2a58backed Nationals | 49c | 170.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Nationals | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…a6e7backed Reds | 52c | 154.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Reds | 61c | 151.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Nationals | 40c | 142.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Reds | 9c | 142$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Reds | 50c | 125.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…044cbacked Reds | 52c | 115.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Nationals | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…086cbacked Nationals | 49c | 103.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Reds | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8181…92b8backed Reds | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Nationals | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 53c | 51.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Nationals | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Reds | 49c | 48.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Nationals | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals | 45c | 30.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Nationals | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.