UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef9a618ece02998ee65d85f9ea2a41db37ada5c86c28f3dc8ccb06947b2e887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7690…74e1backed No | 58c | 3,853$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.24 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.58 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 50c | 178$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 48c | 177.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Yes | 53c | 167.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed No | 46c | 136$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +121%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked No | 47c | 129$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed No | 46c | 124$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 43cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed No | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Yes | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 55c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 45c | 69.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Yes | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Yes | 54c | 63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Yes | 54c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Yes | 54c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Yes | 54c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Yes | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…6d82backed Yes | 59c | 42.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Yes | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Yes | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85da…13b9backed No | 63c | 36.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (Middleweight, Prelims)Nickal won
- Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Rodolfo Vieira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.