UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73fa3e7e6c4a0fee0c1a342660e281d3613050b3a378c1e2502c526f91902d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 43c | 245$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.17 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 45c | 232$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 45c | 224$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 42c | 215.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 45c | 206$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a6…f8aebacked Over | 58c | 172.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Over | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 56c | 104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Over | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Over | 55c | 86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 57c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…0566backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Over | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Over | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…ecc9backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (Middleweight, Prelims)Nickal won
- Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Rodolfo Vieira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.