Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf1209734a7f7a801a57c0b0d7bd011e59788c806da19592a87c6c8003366379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 24c | 2,505$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.48 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked No | 49c | 1,751$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.4 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 1,621$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.96 | 966 | 33.3%322 W · 644 L | +27.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed No | 3c | 1,227$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 5c | 1,223$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 1,202$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.42 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 39c | 1,200$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.04 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 7c | 1,121$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089 | 980 | 13.9%136 W · 844 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,099$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.98 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 3c | 1,061$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.75 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,058$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.23 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 8c | 938.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.5 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 13c | 886.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 23c | 749.76$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 66c | 716.17$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.91 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 672.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.02 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 43c | 588.77$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 529.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.4 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 78c | 508.7$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.09 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 18c | 430.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 70c | 319.44$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.57 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 318.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.58 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa866…8f10backed Yes | 52c | 302.76$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 63c | 297.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 79c | 277.78$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 917 | 40.2%369 W · 548 L | +112.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…cb34backed Yes | 60c | 257.72$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 5c | 255.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.48 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 25c | 250.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.76 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 23c | 249.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.86 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…e52ebacked Yes | 51c | 242.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 241.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.22 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 13c | 229.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.29 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.19 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 5c | 189.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 1,651 | 27.7%458 W · 1,193 L | +118.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 66c | 188.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed No | 77c | 168.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 155.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 11c | 141.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 67c | 137.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…7452backed No | 17c | 118.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked No | 33c | 90.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 25c | 79.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 26c | 77.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 26c | 64.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 19c | 62.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 61.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 61.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455e…9cd2backed Yes | 48c | 58.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 63c | 47.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed No | 54c | 43.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 434 | 37.8%164 W · 270 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b8bbbacked No | 49c | 27.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 77c | 25.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…fd57backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 75cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.