Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c5353583b2e7f94c38081ec7e973bf4c304685c71de0fa791af821ad52061a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 7,814$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 13c | 813.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 682.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 7c | 585$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed Yes | 10c | 577.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 575.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 77c | 538.57$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.06 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 10c | 450.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 435.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 20c | 426.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 424.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 5c | 354.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e1ddbacked Yes | 4c | 337.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 317.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 77c | 270$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 9c | 265.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 32c | 255.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 25c | 215.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 212.38$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 208.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 10c | 205.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 185.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 19c | 166.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 13c | 153.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 20c | 150.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 15c | 142.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 71c | 130.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 21c | 127.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 80c | 108.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 108.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…9087backed Yes | 25c | 101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 80c | 87.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 18c | 79.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 69.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 26c | 60.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 56.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…cca4backed Yes | 22c | 53.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 41c | 51.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 50.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 46.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 46.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 44.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…71cfbacked Yes | 33c | 41.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 30c | 36.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 65c | 33.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…af18backed No | 76c | 30.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 74c | 29.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcc…b878backed No | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 73c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 75c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.