Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa56748c82ffe0a1e17546dec339615da3be6a0c7e5a7bdf9ba0dd25902f16e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 7,131$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,580$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 67c | 2,203$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.44 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed No | 77c | 1,812$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 1,448$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.24 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 837.08$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.76 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 20c | 801.19$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 718.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 34c | 603.97$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.91 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 14c | 547.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 22c | 546.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed No | 70c | 542.61$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.37 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 32c | 513.32$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 29c | 500$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 18c | 494.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…10e6backed Yes | 53c | 469.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 447.59$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 8c | 391.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 6c | 383.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 364.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 30c | 310.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e1ddbacked Yes | 21c | 291$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 250$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 249.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 64c | 226.72$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 226.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 19c | 214.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 41c | 204.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 20c | 204.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b26bbacked No | 70c | 199.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 29c | 197.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 190.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 176.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 175.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 24c | 173.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 173.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…cb34backed Yes | 59c | 170.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 21c | 133.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked No | 66c | 127.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 127.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 123.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 111.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 22c | 103.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 27c | 100.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…bea6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 16c | 96.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 37c | 94.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 19c | 94.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 91.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 56c | 89.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 25c | 88.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…c7a6backed Yes | 23c | 85.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 18c | 84.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…050cbacked Yes | 24c | 81.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…acdabacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 62c | 77.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 20c | 75.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 20c | 74.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 27c | 73.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 70c | 71.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 28c | 64.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 19c | 56.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 77c | 50.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 27c | 50.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…b696backed Yes | 27c | 49.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 51c | 49.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7443…357fbacked Yes | 30c | 44.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 42.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 27c | 38.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af8…fd2abacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…b525backed No | 78c | 32.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 32.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 49c | 30.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 77c | 26.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 73c | 26.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…9cd7backed Yes | 68c | 23.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.