Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c032e0708ac560c98673e60d9ed6775bc6df26580db75fe811583babedb705f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd375…af86backed No | 58c | 10,000$5,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,196.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…6536backed Yes | 42c | 10,000$4,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 6,977$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,351$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 1,030$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 2c | 848.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 788.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 4c | 490.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 3c | 415$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 59c | 397.07$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e1ddbacked Yes | 45c | 328.93$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 55c | 299.39$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc792…5148backed Yes | 37c | 255.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 244.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa866…8f10backed Yes | 54c | 233.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 211.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 52c | 206.92$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 13c | 205$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 59c | 197.1$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed Yes | 33c | 188.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 42c | 167.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 153.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 145.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 40c | 134.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 55c | 128.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 124.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 39c | 102.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 53c | 102.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 89.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked No | 53c | 83.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…acdabacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 70.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 70.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 78c | 69.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 44c | 67.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe905…750bbacked Yes | 53c | 66.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 57c | 66.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 32c | 61.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…966ebacked Yes | 41c | 59.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 67c | 56.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed No | 66c | 50.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked No | 56c | 44.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 46c | 43.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 30c | 43.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 43.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 52c | 42.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 25c | 42.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 39.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 52c | 38.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 58c | 38.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 40c | 37.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…b696backed Yes | 55c | 36.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 64c | 36.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e67…5971backed Yes | 37c | 34.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 48c | 32.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe643…4539backed No | 59c | 30.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Yes | 49c | 30.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 30.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 53c | 30.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…d983backed No | 52c | 28.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…22f3backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 41c | 26.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 44c | 26.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 25.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 50c | 25.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 44c | 23.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…cf0bbacked No | 51c | 23.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 21.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 54c | 21.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf5…047dbacked Yes | 53c | 21.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bea…9f47backed Yes | 54c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6e…c955backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 55c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…a695backed No | 61c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.