Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf1ca689fd7bade8bbb64ec7a5321080337222dfc1f0b05bf4f658fe10446cdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rybakina | 43c | 4,758$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.29 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…67babacked Muchova | 58c | 3,856$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Muchova | 60c | 2,430$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.23 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…5ec9backed Muchova | 58c | 1,681$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.78 | 440 | 18.9%83 W · 357 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6c…d56cbacked Rybakina | 47c | 1,545$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819 | 244 | 51.6%126 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Muchova | 54c | 1,001$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.85 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Rybakina | 41c | 799.99$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Rybakina | 70c | 701.43$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.43 | 464 | 73.3%340 W · 124 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rybakina | 41c | 528.67$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.28 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Rybakina | 53c | 455.92$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.67 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…7d86backed Rybakina | 66c | 445.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Muchova | 57c | 409.93$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.54 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Rybakina | 46c | 387.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rybakina | 67c | 294.06$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Muchova | 56c | 260.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Rybakina | 40c | 250$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Rybakina | 69c | 237.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Rybakina | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Rybakina | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…b009backed Rybakina | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Muchova | 57c | 85.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked Rybakina | 21c | 83.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 84 | 73.8%62 W · 22 L | +24.4wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Rybakina | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Rybakina | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Rybakina | 45c | 72.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b5…8d41backed Rybakina | 48c | 71.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Rybakina | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…70ffbacked Rybakina | 69c | 57.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…3173backed Rybakina | 70c | 51.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Rybakina | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Rybakina | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Rybakina | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Rybakina | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Rybakina | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Rybakina | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Rybakina | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Muchova | 30c | 36.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Rybakina | 70c | 35.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 430 | 62.3%268 W · 162 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Rybakina | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Rybakina | 42c | 33.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 221 | 53.4%118 W · 103 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Muchova | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)this page
- Elena Rybakina vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina MuchovaElena Rybakina won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs MuchovaRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.