Champions League · resolved market
Will Club Brugge KV vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf615707cd38b52f6ffdfe5d266c56077b5fdaba8c78ac614b67b25426bc1b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 1,480$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 19c | 847.37$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 18c | 816$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.77 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 712.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 9c | 709.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 647.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 129 | 38%49 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…7bf8backed Yes | 18c | 588$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddb…51adbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 3c | 455.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -9.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 8c | 431.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 17c | 415.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 18c | 355.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…7435backed Yes | 14c | 330.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…18e4backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…c106backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 12c | 226.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 203 | 43.3%88 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…d85dbacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 18c | 193.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Yes | 12c | 119.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Yes | 22c | 109.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…2b64backed Yes | 16c | 107.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9530…ce5abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…a1aabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78fd…9429backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 12c | 93.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 19c | 55.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Brugge KV vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-10?Yes won
- Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.