Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf682d213f8d8c40e530429fcb8e8edd654704d9b2eec970abf946d669234c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 11c | 897.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 722.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 15c | 171.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked Yes | 73c | 153.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 67c | 147.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 139.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 27c | 133.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 77c | 130.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 34c | 116.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 31c | 113.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed No | 69c | 98.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 94.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 69c | 79.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 32c | 73.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 66.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 52.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 30c | 50.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No | 30c | 47.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 44.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked No | 33c | 41.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 31c | 40.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 34c | 34.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 62c | 26.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 70c | 17.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.