Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61f2cdcd619300a0158cbcb70e0c05f5ab30867e7d2a75a876292d839b64c7e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 1c | 2,205$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 5c | 1,150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 75c | 460.72$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 25c | 275.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 47c | 251.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 26c | 236.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 46c | 235.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.11 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 74c | 230.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.89 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 60c | 198.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…9eebbacked No | 26c | 151.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 66c | 150.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4367…f48dbacked Yes | 30c | 145.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 33c | 142.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked No | 63c | 142.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed Yes | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 19c | 116.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 79c | 109.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed Yes | 69c | 98.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 27c | 92.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 32c | 90.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 90.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 20c | 65.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 58.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 57.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 54.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed No | 34c | 50.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 22c | 48.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed Yes | 67c | 47.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 44c | 46.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed No | 33c | 42.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…1540backed No | 36c | 42.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…4014backed No | 37c | 40.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 38.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 32.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…a73ebacked Yes | 36c | 29.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 79c | 27.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 45c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked No | 61c | 25.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 60c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed Yes | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 64c | 22.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 67c | 22.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 65c | 21.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 66c | 21.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 70c | 20.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 59c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 54c | 20.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 17.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 78c | 17.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.