Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa4071fad346f7e2224638778614e0c462481a1e14cd64da2fc2f625e99af15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked Yes | 4c | 986.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 38c | 183.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 17c | 166$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 130.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 124.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 30c | 99.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 35c | 99.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 20c | 91.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 27c | 91.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 86.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 73c | 77.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 76.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 69.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 65.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 54.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 43.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 69c | 35.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 65c | 32.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 43c | 28.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked No | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or higher on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.