Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a3663d9e10638b4e665e8ce0e757301d6bb52d055b218a53813dfb4b32bd5a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked No | 4c | 1,865$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 57c | 348.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.17 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 5c | 307$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 48c | 280.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 17c | 271.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 18c | 269.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 11c | 192.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 142.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 137.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 44c | 126.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 45c | 99.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 45c | 98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed No | 14c | 79.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 75.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 61c | 71.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 44c | 71.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 69.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 26c | 64.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 76c | 64.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 75c | 59.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 42c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 43.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 36c | 43.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 30c | 41.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 39c | 40.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 68c | 38.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 37.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 51c | 36.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 48c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 65c | 31.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 64c | 30.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 73c | 30.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 56c | 26.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 41c | 25.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 23.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 55c | 21.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 47c | 21.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked No | 58c | 21.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 52c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 16.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…24efbacked Yes | 68c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Yes | 78c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or higher on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.