Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd1003f0d11202b30335b4608f129697f5e5eeb536d01d158c923f4aae214a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 6c | 2,343$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 948.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 794.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…b00dbacked Yes | 16c | 682.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 2c | 572.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 570.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 531.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 17c | 498.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 10c | 474.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes | 6c | 299.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 298.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 279.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 6c | 249.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 18c | 231.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7739…9ea7backed Yes | 8c | 219.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 174.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 11c | 155.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 11c | 115.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 15c | 70.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 70c | 59.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 29.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 78c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.