Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d2e8c742d4e9dc3b04d76664d77d87da17aa6f98dd84fd3190616bec4fd8205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed No | 0c | 44,910$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.42 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 11c | 3,702$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.27 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 19c | 1,277$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 2c | 1,268$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 1,130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed No | 12c | 713.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 10c | 617.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 70c | 524.44$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 58c | 468.65$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 4c | 416.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 14c | 399.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 65c | 396.52$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 6c | 337.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked No | 4c | 299.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 16c | 274.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed Yes | 62c | 274.12$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 13c | 241.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 14c | 214.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…9fa8backed No | 19c | 196.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 65c | 195.55$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 40c | 160.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 22c | 159.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 76c | 128.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e4c2backed No | 13c | 105.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 52c | 98.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 92.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 20c | 90.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 76.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…f3f0backed No | 26c | 70.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 74c | 65.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 23c | 59.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 35c | 56.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 43.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 48c | 39.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee2…e056backed Yes | 77c | 38.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 32c | 36.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes | 75c | 35.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 73c | 33.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 58c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 76c | 25.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 77c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Yes | 59c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 73c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 78c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…644ebacked Yes | 72c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.