Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe7d1b9fb9e16fda5c939f6078f4429a556c822e0f0f80f59a6b9429fed9e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 36c | 10,328$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 64c | 9,954$6,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,583.44 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 30c | 5,474$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.51 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 67c | 2,694$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 66c | 1,471$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.86 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 34c | 1,178$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.65 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 69c | 928.57$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.28 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 66c | 754.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 33c | 599.96$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 65c | 575.97$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 67c | 522.39$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 65c | 496.05$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.59 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 38c | 471.76$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.67 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 40c | 433.33$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 66c | 342.42$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…7fb7backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No | 10c | 295.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 219.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 31c | 201.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5df…fed4backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 66c | 193.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 34c | 175.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 62c | 161.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…4fdfbacked Yes | 66c | 152.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 42c | 145$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…c57abacked Yes | 69c | 144.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…3547backed Yes | 66c | 129.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 34c | 110.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 66c | 101.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 65c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 66c | 96.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…1b1cbacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7355backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Yes | 65c | 72.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 61c | 65.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Yes | 64c | 62.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 35c | 47.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 38c | 33.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…7a8fbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…827ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked Yes | 67c | 25.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…98f1backed Yes | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-30?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-08-30?No won
- Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.