TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$813,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$776,017

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $813,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 522 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x869b…c625backed No63c202,161$126,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,562837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Yes37c163,609$61,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,180.217447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd62…8acfbacked Yes39c64,069$24,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,985.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes16c55,133$8,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,722.9453645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Yes38c26,207$9,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,958.53837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No61c25,903$15,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,030.495954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes40c24,620$9,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,832.4875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No62c22,349$13,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,435.423,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No62c15,000$9,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7005052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No63c8,050$5,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,015.1944749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No37c7,309$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,571.236051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No36c6,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8408637.2%32 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Yes36c5,215$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9008752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Yes36c4,834$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.24465.9%29 W · 15 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7746…25aabacked Yes36c3,997$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes44c3,611$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.542,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd64f…0be7backed Yes36c3,564$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2b…493fbacked Yes36c3,332$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes64c3,258$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,084.4155058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x715e…d4d6backed Yes36c3,160$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa8…20a2backed No64c2,877$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c04…08e5backed No64c2,753$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c0…17babacked Yes36c2,696$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe453…b03cbacked No64c2,614$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.044100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc355…b98fbacked Yes36c2,489$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81b1…5f45backed No64c2,471$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa058…9fc0backed Yes36c2,434$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cb…c746backed Yes36c2,394$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5e…47eebacked No64c2,367$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb98…5448backed No64c2,286$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8681…321ebacked Yes36c2,258$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.8830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7177…a89abacked Yes36c2,244$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60af…1972backed Yes36c2,188$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.68450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes56c2,185$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.9228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa891…df1cbacked No64c2,140$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeea…6cebbacked No64c2,139$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fe…a923backed No63c2,114$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.982759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes37c2,074$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.2114157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x351d…c149backed No64c2,060$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No65c2,036$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.281,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe2…33fcbacked Yes36c1,988$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No63c1,957$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.1423046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x829b…6cc4backed No64c1,920$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc7…5a5fbacked Yes36c1,902$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x387d…bd5fbacked Yes36c1,901$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c0…6e29backed Yes36c1,888$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aaa…3144backed Yes36c1,839$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe872…37fbbacked Yes36c1,765$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb56d…bb1dbacked No64c1,756$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.16450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0e…1167backed Yes36c1,756$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6586…c8adbacked Yes36c1,750$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe313…7e65backed Yes36c1,744$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87cf…351ebacked Yes36c1,692$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd1…1d6bbacked No64c1,680$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc709…632ebacked Yes36c1,663$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c0…2efabacked No64c1,621$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.56425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde12…a508backed No64c1,620$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed No62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.92882.1%23 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32a2…721bbacked Yes36c1,597$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6085…4880backed Yes36c1,591$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e9…16c2backed No64c1,555$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd68…546dbacked Yes36c1,555$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x323c…56b7backed No64c1,554$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.443100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd4f…5aedbacked Yes36c1,545$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x001e…8316backed No64c1,528$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf00b…71d2backed No64c1,525$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4caf…46cdbacked Yes36c1,520$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes40c1,494$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.0224050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6942…48e4backed Yes36c1,483$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d6…f172backed No64c1,476$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.364100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick58cpaid+75.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f0f…53b7backed Yes36c1,475$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2540…e2a6backed Yes36c1,465$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes37c1,451$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.0414846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb291…6e13backed Yes36c1,446$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.5640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3bb…2382backed Yes36c1,436$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe12f…194abacked No64c1,430$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d97…2ad3backed No64c1,420$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8416…0685backed Yes36c1,419$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb455…76b1backed No64c1,414$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No62c1,408$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.1219544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd7…de35backed Yes36c1,392$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58df…b3aabacked No64c1,365$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe982…7329backed Yes36c1,360$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf90…669ebacked No64c1,350$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7646…8955backed Yes36c1,346$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a7…9a6abacked Yes36c1,344$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick51cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb1…f93cbacked No64c1,315$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6a…cacfbacked Yes36c1,292$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed No62c1,290$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.3215540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd6…21c1backed No64c1,274$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No61c1,246$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4862040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc7d…4ea5backed No64c1,237$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes36c1,230$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.814756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18cd…82aebacked Yes36c1,224$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae13…2dfebacked Yes36c1,221$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.56450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x892a…962bbacked Yes36c1,209$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe99d…11d8backed No64c1,204$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.