Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76bd95b3140c0fe1f2c327e271bb365246082fa7e2bffd81db534ddb2ab751da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 18,137$9,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,363.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 36c | 16,992$6,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,095.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 62c | 5,627$3,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.84 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 3,848$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516.58 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 34c | 3,676$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,418.3 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,678$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.94 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed No | 73c | 2,651$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 51c | 2,053$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.44 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 50c | 1,945$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.86 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 78c | 1,806$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.57 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,040$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.4 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed No | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 821.43$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.43 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.4 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 632$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.04 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…741dbacked Yes | 28c | 536$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 33c | 531.62$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.27 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 28c | 508.86$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 23c | 377.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 80c | 369.56$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 74c | 362.28$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.9 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…7f54backed Yes | 31c | 320$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…2e68backed Yes | 61c | 244.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 72c | 223.09$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Yes | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aea…e355backed Yes | 78c | 176.73$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 73c | 168$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 74c | 161.16$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.54 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 71c | 142$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 73c | 137.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 77c | 132.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 80c | 125.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0c…f470backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 26c | 99.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…b2c7backed No | 74c | 94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 33c | 81.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 23c | 68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…968fbacked Yes | 48c | 66.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 72c | 57.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 33c | 44.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…567dbacked No | 44c | 36.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…121bbacked Yes | 75c | 35.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 72c | 35.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e89…c2d9backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Yes | 50c | 26.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9ebbbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…cd27backed Yes | 54c | 25.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…7ecabacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc6…79d5backed Yes | 70c | 25.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed No | 73c | 24.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…ca8dbacked Yes | 74c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6a…7f44backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.