Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe026b92fd7b14d6b003224a3b1a3df6f5f74e598d9828e2888e22d1f217721df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed Yes | 61c | 26,820$16,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,360.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…eb9fbacked No | 43c | 9,831$4,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,590.65 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 39c | 6,499$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,964.41 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…82b3backed No | 50c | 2,446$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed No | 39c | 2,158$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.19 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 39c | 1,762$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.05 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 40c | 1,017$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.59 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 39c | 405.92$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.72 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 259.7$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 232.49$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 39c | 214.82$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 189.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…1e87backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…28c3backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…cab1backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…ba4abacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1afc…fb8dbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc643…e631backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…335dbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…cdcebacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…fc3bbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf29c…9559backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee0…b47bbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2c…fc7fbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c70…101bbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…df2cbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2994…1dadbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…ad75backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…f627backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 39c | 141$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 135.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 127.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 124.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 120.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 58c | 90.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 87.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 45c | 70.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 58c | 54.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 51.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed Yes | 59c | 50.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 39.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 36.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 35.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 76c | 34.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 30.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 30.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 55c | 27.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 27.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 59c | 27.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 45c | 26.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 65c | 24.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 59c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 64c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 76c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 68c | 18.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 76c | 15.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.