Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe03f772edf8d2e2c588ff2a5b1f8bcb20431959c8f2fdff7a0a44f26e811d2f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 69c | 2,187$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.11 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 1,550$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.9 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 798.72$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.43 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f4…d961backed Under | 30c | 468.2$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 14c | 319.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…d6d7backed Over | 70c | 238.84$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…dff8backed Over | 70c | 229.36$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 29c | 89.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f88…293bbacked Under | 31c | 50.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 32c | 37.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 70c | 29.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…7e6abacked Over | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…bb07backed Over | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.