Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x288467ebd330444763eaec53e688b222c73fd2e98645a668a8f2bdffa38996b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 6,401$3,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,738.74 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 58c | 6,000$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.98 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ef…6f22backed Under | 26c | 3,500$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 43c | 1,572$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.96 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 42c | 1,400$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 42c | 883.6$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.11 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 687.51$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.97 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 75c | 666$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 56c | 474.94$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.62 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 284.9$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 51c | 273.37$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.16 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Over | 46c | 256.69$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 54c | 210.31$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 177 | 56.5%100 W · 77 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…eedfbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…1107backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 58c | 86.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 83.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Over | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 43c | 78.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 57c | 72.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…fa88backed Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…e1b2backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 62c | 44.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 42c | 39.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 57c | 31.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc989…ad9fbacked Under | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 58c | 29.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 53c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Under | 56c | 24.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 76c | 22.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…eeb1backed Over | 48c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b8…89e4backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.