Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Karolina Muchova vs Anna Bondar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe07c36f71ca544e9c0fcb79c2192f839c090731b59cba7f77bed2738a716b232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Karolina Muchovaof Karolina Muchova, Anna Bondar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,405 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Anna Bondar | 16c | 14,932$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.75 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Anna Bondar | 16c | 5,127$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.4 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Anna Bondar | 17c | 3,500$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Anna Bondar | 19c | 3,001$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.96 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Anna Bondar | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Anna Bondar | 19c | 2,255$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.49 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Karolina Muchova | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Anna Bondar | 7c | 1,683$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.77 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Karolina Muchova | 75c | 1,629$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.48 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Anna Bondar | 3c | 1,539$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Anna Bondar | 11c | 1,027$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Anna Bondar | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…4183backed Anna Bondar | 11c | 875.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Anna Bondar | 12c | 807$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Anna Bondar | 9c | 599.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Anna Bondar | 19c | 462.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Anna Bondar | 11c | 428.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Anna Bondar | 25c | 404.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2088…f932backed Anna Bondar | 11c | 318.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Anna Bondar | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Anna Bondar | 21c | 254.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Anna Bondar | 15c | 232.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Anna Bondar | 10c | 231.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Anna Bondar | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Anna Bondar | 17c | 182.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Anna Bondar | 17c | 160.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Anna Bondar | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Karolina Muchova | 75c | 133.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Anna Bondar | 11c | 123.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Karolina Muchova | 70c | 121.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d9…86febacked Anna Bondar | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Anna Bondar | 33c | 103$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…9d94backed Anna Bondar | 11c | 102.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Anna Bondar | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 347 | 44.4%154 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Karolina Muchova | 69c | 96.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 145 | 41.4%60 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Anna Bondar | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Anna Bondar | 15c | 82.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Anna Bondar | 21c | 78.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Anna Bondar | 24c | 64.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…b02fbacked Karolina Muchova | 78c | 48.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Anna Bondar | 33c | 43.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Anna Bondar | 28c | 40.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 175 | 52.6%92 W · 83 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…81ebbacked Karolina Muchova | 77c | 24.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Karolina Muchova | 67c | 18.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Karolina Muchova | 80c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Karolina Muchova | 66c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Karolina Muchova vs Anna Bondarthis page
- Karolina Muchova vs. Anna Bondar: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Muchova vs. Bondar: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs BondarMuchova won
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Bondar (+1.5)Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.