MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0839e376bdebb838cab49c9f411d42f7ff7527e98404e06e8a6f21b5a6543c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 842$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 528.85$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.19 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 446.24$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 380$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 300.91$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 203$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 198$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 197.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 85.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 47.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd200…fc9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta BravesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.