MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7de6324bc5ec83e7ab6a8eed9540708b69fd1784b8603da4026245729cc042e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 59c | 3,400$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.83 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 1,798$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 1,493$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,375$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 14c | 1,267$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 1,200$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 56c | 1,190$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.91 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,137$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.28 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 949$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.36 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 623.76$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.45 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 42c | 560$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 44c | 449.31$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.7 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 59c | 339.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Over | 44c | 237$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 235.33$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 182.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 29c | 172.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 55c | 131.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…4388backed Under | 57c | 65.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 30c | 44.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 56c | 35.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 56c | 28.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta BravesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.