Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a25aa2b915bcb3c1df0404d542e2a1d2bf2706cab1c12389b9ac59e7422162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Poor Rangers, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7645…3117backed Poor Rangers | 18c | 7,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.98 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Poor Rangers | 19c | 3,800$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.99 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Poor Rangers | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Poor Rangers | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Poor Rangers | 15c | 448.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Poor Rangers | 10c | 301.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Poor Rangers | 18c | 279.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Poor Rangers | 6c | 233.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Poor Rangers | 11c | 192$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons | 78c | 192$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Poor Rangers | 22c | 176.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…57b5backed Team Falcons | 80c | 160.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 348 | 60.1%209 W · 139 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Poor Rangers | 8c | 158.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9b…12eabacked Poor Rangers | 21c | 144.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Poor Rangers | 19c | 107.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Poor Rangers | 15c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Poor Rangers | 14c | 73.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…2135backed Team Falcons | 79c | 62.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Poor Rangers | 20c | 62.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce3…599dbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.