Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5752afa8f675531adc985de256d995ff006c6190ca0817a2ef038ad8317f0917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Poor Rangers, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Poor Rangers | 12c | 32,191$3,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,831.94 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Poor Rangers | 7c | 4,822$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.34 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Poor Rangers | 7c | 3,750$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.77 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Poor Rangers | 16c | 3,101$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed Poor Rangers | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Poor Rangers | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Poor Rangers | 10c | 2,106$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.38 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Poor Rangers | 15c | 2,029$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Poor Rangers | 13c | 2,000$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.72 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Poor Rangers | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Poor Rangers | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Poor Rangers | 15c | 1,992$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.45 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Poor Rangers | 9c | 1,916$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Poor Rangers | 14c | 1,868$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Poor Rangers | 11c | 1,691$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Poor Rangers | 16c | 1,502$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.26 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Poor Rangers | 15c | 1,500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d7…3a17backed Poor Rangers | 13c | 1,199$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.86 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Poor Rangers | 6c | 1,009$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Poor Rangers | 13c | 1,002$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.28 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Poor Rangers | 3c | 890.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…bb53backed Poor Rangers | 17c | 744$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.97 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked Poor Rangers | 17c | 599.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Poor Rangers | 14c | 584.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…e128backed Poor Rangers | 17c | 579.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…71c4backed Poor Rangers | 17c | 529.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Poor Rangers | 15c | 499.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Poor Rangers | 7c | 460.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Poor Rangers | 17c | 460.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed Poor Rangers | 14c | 388.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked Poor Rangers | 15c | 362.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…e2c4backed Poor Rangers | 13c | 360.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Poor Rangers | 5c | 299.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked Poor Rangers | 13c | 202.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…94c8backed Poor Rangers | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…1ee8backed Poor Rangers | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Poor Rangers | 9c | 189.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Poor Rangers | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Team Falcons | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ba…a3d6backed Poor Rangers | 15c | 97.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Poor Rangers | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Poor Rangers | 13c | 87.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…b262backed Poor Rangers | 14c | 71.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Team Falcons | 79c | 34.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group ATeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.