Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x375f509abfb41ebb2ff239fdc1bd2dc0cb0ddeb6ff07cce84711519fbba8be3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Poor Rangers, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Poor Rangers | 17c | 27,112$4,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,489.05 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Poor Rangers | 13c | 18,198$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.59 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Poor Rangers | 13c | 3,893$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.09 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed Poor Rangers | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Poor Rangers | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Poor Rangers | 11c | 2,548$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.68 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed Poor Rangers | 14c | 2,157$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Poor Rangers | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Poor Rangers | 10c | 1,923$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.67 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Poor Rangers | 13c | 1,757$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.64 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Poor Rangers | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Poor Rangers | 10c | 1,480$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…1ccebacked Poor Rangers | 14c | 1,409$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.25 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Poor Rangers | 9c | 1,057$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Poor Rangers | 11c | 1,022$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.03 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Poor Rangers | 10c | 1,005$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Poor Rangers | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…5667backed Poor Rangers | 15c | 900$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…b814backed Poor Rangers | 11c | 712$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 241 | 53.1%128 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Poor Rangers | 2c | 695.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Poor Rangers | 13c | 674$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Poor Rangers | 15c | 529.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked Poor Rangers | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Poor Rangers | 16c | 460$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed Poor Rangers | 14c | 450$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…e128backed Poor Rangers | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…0af2backed Poor Rangers | 15c | 333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…e59dbacked Poor Rangers | 9c | 316.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 220 | 31.8%70 W · 150 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Poor Rangers | 12c | 310$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…94c8backed Poor Rangers | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Poor Rangers | 14c | 147.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Poor Rangers | 11c | 119.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Poor Rangers | 12c | 119.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed Poor Rangers | 13c | 116.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Poor Rangers | 18c | 104.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Poor Rangers | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Poor Rangers | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group ATeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.