MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a5471965651c6863f6d06a0b7fc2e96ae68a16b91850994f776f660507712b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Houston Astros | 52c | 20,465$10,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,827.18 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 15,600$7,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,488 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 1,362$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.76 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 1,160$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.99 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 1,030$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.44 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Houston Astros | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 911.46$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 743.41$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 512$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Houston Astros | 53c | 473.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.58 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 404.31$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Houston Astros | 51c | 290$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Houston Astros | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 278.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Houston Astros | 50c | 182.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 115.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 73.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Houston Astros | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…a5fbbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 38.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 33.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Houston Astros | 53c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Houston Astros | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.