TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,098 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b15…fa73backed Minnesota Twins48c500$240 inLost-$24033864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals45c371.74$168 inWon+$203.721,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Kansas City Royals43c347.99$150 inWon+$198.359837.8%37 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins30c339.72$100 inLost-$100.256,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins47c264.5$124 inLost-$123.638,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals65c259.24$168 inWon+$91.7212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins69c245.56$169 inLost-$169.448,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Kansas City Royals44c177.7$78 inWon+$99.5163943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951a…8c9dbacked Minnesota Twins22c113.64$25 inLost-$253023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins61c71.11$43 inLost-$43.1311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins63c58.17$36 inLost-$36.392,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins59c57.87$34 inLost-$34.063,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e3…ab76backed Kansas City Royals40c55.8$22 inWon+$33.482718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-44.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Kansas City Royals34c45.32$16 inWon+$29.813528.6%10 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe193…466ebacked Kansas City Royals33c43.3$14 inWon+$29.012326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-41%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Minnesota Twins53c37.84$20 inLost-$19.881,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Kansas City Royals39c35.5$14 inWon+$21.7399744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Minnesota Twins49c24.49$12 inLost-$1211155.9%62 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe581…d77abacked Minnesota Twins57c24.05$14 inLost-$13.837650%38 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Minnesota Twins56c20$11 inLost-$11.2334754.8%190 W · 157 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff97…7350backed Minnesota Twins69c17.39$12 inLost-$12666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Minnesota Twins70c17.03$12 inLost-$11.922,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.