TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,595
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,595 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b15…fa73backed Minnesota Twins59c999$589 inWon+$409.5933864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals41c708.15$292 inLost-$292.3412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals59c625.82$370 inLost-$369.5111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Minnesota Twins35c257.14$90 inWon+$167.1494549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Minnesota Twins35c220.17$77 inWon+$143.1111153.2%59 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals26c173.07$45 inLost-$45.098,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins69c149.6$103 inWon+$46.234,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins69c109.74$76 inWon+$34.0210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c6…eeb6backed Kansas City Royals31c104.58$32 inLost-$32.4215942.8%68 W · 91 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Minnesota Twins25c78$20 inWon+$58.530340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals72c56.83$41 inLost-$40.963,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals57c51.55$29 inLost-$29.215,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins34c50$17 inWon+$331,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Kansas City Royals66c32$21 inLost-$21.1272154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals66c20$13 inLost-$13.21,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins64c17.58$11 inWon+$6.338,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals66c15.5$10 inLost-$10.231,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ad…90c6backed Minnesota Twins73c14.03$10 inWon+$3.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.