Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-09-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0d9db8a6b84b2980869d6e7fe01bf30cadf8c0ef316185dbfe9b91fb0ca00ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 21,834$16,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,204.78 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 16,780$3,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,757.6 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 28c | 14,595$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,097.8 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 29c | 9,431$2,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,705 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 73c | 6,744$4,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 71c | 2,351$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.24 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 71c | 1,199$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 1,187$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.6 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 71c | 900$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 825$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.01 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 72c | 640.66$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 32c | 593$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.76 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 443.59$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.08 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 333$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…fcecbacked Yes | 27c | 242.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11cb…6de3backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc76d…f99fbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 70c | 19.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-09-16?this page
- Will Inter Miami CF vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.