Tennis · resolved market
Rolex Paris Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Damir Dzumhur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe105a3b6afa751f561a1836379917b7b8638e65cf97056f26be864c2ec0640f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Dzumhur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x286c…caffbacked Cerundolo | 73c | 4,091$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.41 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Dzumhur | 29c | 4,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Cerundolo | 71c | 3,138$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.03 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Dzumhur | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.94 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Dzumhur | 26c | 2,887$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.89 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Cerundolo | 72c | 2,714$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Cerundolo | 71c | 2,487$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.78 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Cerundolo | 70c | 1,719$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.99 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…d8debacked Cerundolo | 70c | 1,508$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…d55dbacked Dzumhur | 30c | 1,506$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Dzumhur | 27c | 1,400$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.87 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Dzumhur | 29c | 1,035$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.15 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Dzumhur | 29c | 935$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.15 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Dzumhur | 28c | 893$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Dzumhur | 30c | 690$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cerundolo | 70c | 684.44$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.33 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Cerundolo | 71c | 632.54$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.44 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Cerundolo | 77c | 480$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Dzumhur | 17c | 471.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48d…5182backed Cerundolo | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 245 | 58.8%144 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…55f1backed Dzumhur | 8c | 226.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Cerundolo | 72c | 223.92$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Dzumhur | 15c | 220.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Cerundolo | 73c | 219.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Dzumhur | 11c | 208.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Cerundolo | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Dzumhur | 29c | 140.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Cerundolo | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Cerundolo | 75c | 134.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Dzumhur | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…b193backed Cerundolo | 73c | 90.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 258 | 62.4%161 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…9373backed Cerundolo | 73c | 83.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 129 | 74.4%96 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…341cbacked Dzumhur | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Dzumhur | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Cerundolo | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…0ab7backed Dzumhur | 31c | 40.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…170cbacked Cerundolo | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…529cbacked Dzumhur | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Cerundolo | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cerundolo | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…aba2backed Cerundolo | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.