UFC · resolved market
UFC 303: Who will win - Anthony Smith vs. Carlos Ulberg?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11f1b4069f897bdbe7b6b871562a0f4c072e218ba17ef169b51d8738d6fe798
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Smithof Smith, Ulberg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0738…6392backed Ulberg | 50c | 418$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Ulberg | 50c | 340$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Smith | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…c405backed Ulberg | 49c | 226.47$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Ulberg | 49c | 211.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Ulberg | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Smith | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…c959backed Smith | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…5f6abacked Ulberg | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Smith | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc009…4422backed Smith | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 303: Who will win - Anthony Smith vs. Carlos Ulberg?this page
- UFC 303: Who will win - Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka?Pereira won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze?Dolidze won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes?Ortega won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page?Garry won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson?Chiasson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.