UFC · resolved market
UFC 303: Who will win - Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6f708cad38d40cf899d869cc3dc1e434786e932018f95b7e981fa3dafdef11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiassonof Silva, Chiasson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccf0…3b75backed Silva | 53c | 1,872$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Chiasson | 41c | 1,542$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Chiasson | 45c | 1,117$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Chiasson | 48c | 1,110$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Silva | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Chiasson | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Silva | 59c | 739.62$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.65 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Silva | 52c | 595$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Silva | 52c | 281.25$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Silva | 60c | 269$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.07 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Silva | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…1ab0backed Chiasson | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Chiasson | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…e416backed Silva | 54c | 155$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Silva | 53c | 150.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Chiasson | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Chiasson | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Silva | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Silva | 53c | 74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Chiasson | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa7…309ebacked Silva | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d6…1753backed Silva | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…36d3backed Silva | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Chiasson | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…5f6abacked Chiasson | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Chiasson | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf22…d46ebacked Chiasson | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +126%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 303: Who will win - Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson?this page
- UFC 303: Who will win - Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka?Pereira won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Anthony Smith vs. Carlos Ulberg?Smith won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze?Dolidze won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes?Ortega won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page?Garry won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.